Climate Change: How Long Is "Ever"?

By Daniel Brouse
July 8, 2023

How long is “ever”… as in “the hottest it’s ever been in recorded history”?

During the first week of July 2023, the Earth had the hottest days ever.

Humans are about 200,000 years old with our closest variety being dated to about 140,000 years ago. The earliest “recording of history” is approximately 100,000 years old. It is the story of The Seven Sisters of The Pleiades. The Seven Sister are a cluster of stars in the Taurus constellation. There are six stars visible to the naked eye. The story is about seven stars. The seventh star has not been visible to the naked eye for over 100,000 years.

The 20th-century surface temperature average for Earth was 13.9℃.
In July of 2023 we are seeing average temperatures of 17℃.

Q: Is it possible for humans to push the temperature 3℃ above pre-industrial levels?
A: Yes. Humans have pushed global temperatures up more than 3℃.

Q: Is it possible for humans to survive at temperatures greater than 3℃?
A: Probably not long. Humans have never done it before.

Extreme weather will become more frequent and intense. Sea levels will rapidly rise as the coasts disappear. However, the most concerning development will be feedback loops and tipping points. Plants will become extinct and many carbon sinks will vanish. The Earth’s temperature will continue to accelerate at an exponential rate no matter what humans do. Food, fresh water, and breathable air will cease to exist. Humans will likely follow in short order.

These "tipping points" were preventable; however, now they are becoming inevitable. Climate scientists had thought we would not cross tipping points for centuries at the earliest. In July of 2023, the third study to conclude crossing the tipping point for the collapse of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) was published in the journal Nature. "We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century (2050) under the current scenario of future emissions."

“The increasing heating of our planet caused by fossil fuel use is not unexpected, it was predicted already in the 19th century after all,” said climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany. “But it is dangerous for us humans and for the ecosystems we depend on. We need to stop it fast.”

This is our current situation. Not “years away”. Not tomorrow. Today.

Stop burning fossil fuels today, stop exploiting hydrocarbons today, or else….


UPDATE
September 6, 2023
"Climate breakdown has begun", the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned the world after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported the world endure its hottest Northern Hemisphere summer in human history. "The dog days of summer are not just barking, they are biting," the UN chief said in a statement after the report's release.

"What we are observing, are not only new extremes but the persistence of these record-breaking conditions, and the impacts these have on both people and planet, are a clear consequence of the warming of the climate system," C3S's Climate Change Service Director Carlo Buontempo said.

"Climate Breakdown" is -- "the most concerning development". Climate breakdown happens when feedback loops are created and tipping points are crossed. Plants will become extinct and many carbon sinks will vanish. The Earth’s temperature will continue to accelerate at an exponential rate no matter what humans do. Food, fresh water, and breathable air will cease to exist. Humans will likely follow in short order.

Tipping Points
Modified from "Exceeding 1.5℃ global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points" (Sept. 2022). The red line marked "July 2023" shows some of the multiple tipping points crossed and feedback loops created in the summer of 2023.

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration
Climate Change: The Equation
Climate Change: The End of Times

What you can do today. How to save the planet.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

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