The Runaway Crisis: How Accelerating Climate Change Is Exceeding Predictions and Escalating Costs

by Brouse and Mukherjee

Foreword by Daniel Brouse, October 2024

The Past, Present, and Future of Climate Change

In the 1990s, we first hypothesized the non-linear acceleration of climate change. By the early 2000s, this hypothesis had evolved into established climate theory, now widely recognized as scientific fact. My lab partner, a Doctor of Physics from Ohio State, and I collaborated to provide key evidence supporting this theory. Over the years, we have observed a dramatic reduction in the doubling time of climate change impacts -- the rate at which these effects intensify. Initially, the doubling time was approximately 100 years, but it has since decreased to 10 years and, more recently, to just 2 years. This trend implies that the damage caused by climate change today is double what it was two years ago. In two years, it could be four times worse; in four years, eight times worse; and within a decade, potentially 64 times worse. These projections are conservative, assuming the doubling period does not continue to shrink further. Alarmingly, this rapid acceleration does not appear to be an anomaly. If this trajectory persists, the consequences will likely be far more catastrophic than previously anticipated.

Our climate model was validated in the summer of 2024, as we observed a dozen billion-dollar climate disasters in the first part of the year. On September 26, Hurricane Helene made landfall, emerging as one of the most destructive climate events in recorded history. With over 200 fatalities and $126 billion in direct damages, the hurricane had ripple effects beyond its immediate destruction. For instance, it disrupted 60% of the U.S. IV fluid supply, causing critical shortages in the healthcare sector. Even more concerning, the global tech industry has been impacted, as 99% of the pure quartz used in semiconductor manufacturing has been affected, leading to potential long-term consequences for electronics production.

Hurricane Milton quickly followed, further compounding the devastation. Milton is expected to result in over $100 billion in insurance claims, complicating an already strained insurance market for Florida homeowners. On top of that, the public and government will likely bear an additional $50 billion in costs, placing further pressure on taxpayers and state resources. Much of the damage was caused by high winds and an unprecedented number of tornadoes -- over 30 tornadoes hit eastern Florida, causing the highest number of fatalities and extensive financial losses.

The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London confirmed that nearly half of the increased costs and intensity of Hurricanes Milton and Helene can be directly attributed to climate change. According to Professor Ralf Toumi, Director of the Grantham Institute and co-author of several studies, "With every fraction of a degree of warming, extreme weather events like Hurricanes Milton and Helene become more powerful and destructive. This should be a wake-up call for anyone who believes climate change is too expensive to address -- every delay in reducing emissions only increases the cost of these catastrophic events."

In summary, the evidence is clear: climate change is rapidly accelerating, and the costs -- both economic and human -- are growing exponentially. The future demands decisive and immediate action to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prevent further environmental and societal collapse. Our updated climate model, now integrating complex social-ecological factors, shows that global temperatures could rise by up to 9°C within this century -- far beyond previous predictions of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years. This kind of warming could bring us dangerously close to the "wet-bulb" threshold, where heat and humidity exceed the human body's ability to cool itself, leading to fatal consequences.

The Immediate Impact of Climate Change
If you’re wondering why rain-related severe weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, it’s due to climate change. Rising temperatures increase the amount of humidity in the atmosphere, as warmer air holds more moisture. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation shows that for every 1°C (1.8°F) increase in temperature, the air can hold about 7% more water vapor. This not only raises relative humidity, posing health risks, but it also amplifies the intensity of extreme weather events like storms, floods, and hurricanes.

Many areas in the U.S. are experiencing average temperature increases of up to 10°C, extending over more weeks during both spring and fall. This increase allows the atmosphere to hold about 70% more water vapor, leading to significantly more rainfall. Additionally, raindrops are becoming larger and falling faster, which increases their momentum. Using the formula p=mv (momentum = mass x velocity), larger and faster raindrops carry more energy.

Moreover, the number of raindrops is also increasing. A higher concentration of raindrops in a given time and area further boosts momentum. For example, if N raindrops, each with mass m and velocity v, hit a surface area A per second, the total momentum impacting the surface is Nmv per second. This contributes to increased force and damage during rainstorms.

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