Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee
February 12, 2026
Since the 1990s, we have advanced what we termed the Non-Linear Acceleration Hypothesis — the proposition that climate change impacts do not progress linearly, but instead accelerate over time as interacting physical processes amplify one another. Early analysis suggested an approximate doubling time of major climate impacts on the order of a century, signaling systemic nonlinear behavior rather than gradual change.
Over the following decades, accumulating observational and theoretical evidence has supported and expanded this framework. By the 2010s, we extended the hypothesis into what we called the Domino Effect: the cascading interaction of climate tipping points and feedback loops, in which the activation of one destabilizing mechanism increases the probability of triggering others.
Recent empirical studies and independent research now increasingly validate this cascading systems perspective.
In the 1990s, we introduced the concept that climate change impacts were accelerating nonlinearly. Rather than a steady, incremental progression, the data suggested that feedback mechanisms were compounding the rate of change.
By the early 2000s, multiple independent datasets — including temperature records, ice mass balance observations, wildfire trends, and ocean heat content — provided strong confirmation that the trajectory of climate impacts was not linear. Since then, numerous independent researchers have documented accelerating trends across cryospheric loss, hydrological extremes, ecosystem degradation, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
The core insight was straightforward:
Feedback loops alter the rate of change itself.
During the 2010s, we expanded this framework to incorporate interacting tipping elements within the Earth system. We termed this cascading interaction the Domino Effect.
The Domino Effect describes a process in which:
Unlike isolated tipping points, this framework emphasizes interconnected collapse dynamics — a network of reinforcing processes capable of producing abrupt systemic change.
By the 2020s, mounting evidence supported this cascading systems perspective. In 2025, we published:
These studies examined the interconnected nature of:
Our central finding: these are not isolated processes. They form a coupled instability network. When multiple nodes destabilize simultaneously, the system behaves less like a slow cascade and more like a chain reaction.
We are not merely observing a sequence — we are observing interaction.
In 2026, a study published in One Earth and highlighted by Yale Environment 360 stated:
“Scientists warn that the crossing of one tipping point can push the Earth past another, in a domino effect.”
(https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(25)00391-4)
(https://e360.yale.edu/digest/hothouse-earth-study)
To the best of our knowledge, Sidd Mukherjee and I were the first to formally frame climate tipping interactions explicitly as a cascading domino effect and to apply that terminology to Earth system feedback dynamics.
This framing originally appeared in earlier work:
“Cascading Feedbacks: The Domino Effect
Climate feedback loops do not act independently; rather, they interact synergistically in what we term the Domino Effect — a cascade of tipped tipping points where each system failure accelerates the next.”
It is encouraging to see the broader scientific community converging on this systems-level interpretation.
When we say it is validating to see this hypothesis increasingly reflected in mainstream climate science, we are referring to confirmation of the underlying physics and systems theory — not any satisfaction about the consequences.
The physics of nonlinear systems, coupled feedbacks, radiative forcing amplification, and threshold behavior is now being widely recognized as central to understanding 21st-century climate dynamics.
There is no triumph in being correct about destabilization.
This is one of those moments where scientific validation carries profound discomfort.
The Domino Effect is not a metaphor for dramatic effect — it is a systems description. The Earth system is composed of interconnected feedback loops. When enough thresholds are crossed, the response is nonlinear, accelerated, and potentially abrupt.
The evolution from hypothesis (1990s), to observational support (2000s), to networked tipping theory (2010s), to broad empirical validation (2020s) reflects a maturation in climate science: from linear projection models to complex systems dynamics.
Understanding these cascades is no longer theoretical. It is essential to anticipating the pace, scale, and risks of future change.
And while it is scientifically affirming to see the physics confirmed, it is deeply sobering to witness the system behave exactly as nonlinear theory predicts.